Before going state by state, let me give one example that will also make you doubt a landslide Biden victory. Marist College A staple since 1978 and one of the first university polling groups, Marist is accurate, relatively unbiased, and has recent success to add to its historical reputation as the gold standard. The best tool we have to determine the outcome of elections is polls. Sources with an AllSides Media Bias Rating of Right display media bias in ways that strongly align with conservative, traditional, or right-wing thought and/or policy agendas. Insider generally reports news factually and with a left-leaning bias in story selection. Vote Democratic up and down the ticket. How Did The Polls Do in Iowa?, read it here: Time for a Huntsman Comeback?, read it here: I just posted Why I sure as heck am skeptical that Romney will falter in NH, read it here: Insider Advantage in Two Figures : Margin of rror, Two Polls Show Gingrich Leading in South Carolina | Hotspyer - Breaking News from around the web, POLITICAL WIRES HEADLINES - 1/20 Accomack County Democrats, New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich | CATA NEWS, New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich | The Presidency, FiveThirtyEight: New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich | My Blog, What are the chances of a Bush/Gore-style tie in 2012? Pollster bias, the idea that a survey house's polls constantly favor one candidate or party vs. another, remains one of the more controversial subjects in the polling industry. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Oct. 23 showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Bias in polling is an important subject because polls not only tell us who is winning, but they influence news coverage. Also, in InsiderAdvantages first survey in the Georgia lt. governors race: Burt Jones (R): 46%Charlie Bailey (D): 41%Ryan Graham (Libertarian): 4%Undecided: 9%, Towery:Jones looks likelyto win without a runoff as of now., Its been five years since former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed left office, but some of his hand-picked city officials are still being rung up by the feds. According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Insider Advantage has an overall B- grade. Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. d +0.4192: r-0.2947: i-0.3089: n +0.2299: lbt +1.0649: g +4.1447: idp +2.7835: lty +0.9609: lr +1.4250 Can you take a moment and try to remember how you felt about the election results around that time? * Walker increased his share of the African American vote by 8 points in one week. Four years ago fivethirtyeight predicted that Trump would win Florida by 0.1 points, but Trump won Florida by 1.2 points. Does Joe Biden Know Where Joe Biden Is? So this is becoming a very interesting thing. This would suggest the opposite of a bias. Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub. Just in the past 24 hours, Insider Advantage released a poll showing Mitt Romney turning a 2% South Carolina edge into a 11% lead over Newt Gingrich in an amazing 4 days. Bezos Expeditions, the personal investment company of Jeff Bezos, will hold further shares according to the details of the purchase. Please. In July, their polling showed the former VP leading the president by just over 5 points, 49.7-to-44.3, in the state. Written off as dead by opponents, Buckhead cityhood legislation is very much still alive in the General Assembly with a pair of bills passing out of the Senate State and Local Government Operations Committee Monday that would place the issue on ballots in November of 2024. One other poll from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and two Democratic backed polls released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster. A, shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. * Warnock has not received above 46% in any recent InsiderAdvantage poll of the race. Trafalgar has been questioned for its methodology and for an apparent bias towards the Republican Party. During the December 11th to December 13th period, four polls were released in Iowa. New polls show Trump trailing by 9 points nationally, by that same margin in Ohio, and tied with Hillary Clinton in Utah. Each poll has its own bias and we can get rid of some of the bias in individual polls by combining the results of each individual poll in one giant poll. * Walker increased his share of the African American vote by 8 points in one week. . This potential conflict of interest is known by some, but is certainly not echoed enough by those who cover and recite Insider Advantage polling data. A, also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to, Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters, shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. He also showed Barack Obama winning key battleground states in 2008. Previously, DeSantis led Trump 45% to 41% among Republican voters.Now Trump leads DeSantis 47% to 39% a net swing of 12 percentage points in . He has a point of view. People from across the political spectrum people who identified as Left, Lean Left, Center, Lean Right, or Right rated the media bias of Insider. Marist enjoys popularity and produces a large number of election polls each year . * Republican voters now unified behind Walker. In late September, Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro held a double-digit lead over Republican nominee Doug Mastriano. The unique perspective of the history and culture of the researchers program was the most significant advantage, enabling a deep level of understanding and interpretation. We can get rid of some of the bias, but not all of it. ? U.S. SenateRaphael Warnock (D): 46%Herschel Walker (R): 44%Chase Oliver (Libertarian): 4%Undecided: 6%, GovernorBrian Kemp (R): 50%Stacey Abrams (D): 43%Shane Hazel (Libertarian): 2%Undecided: 5%. * Republican voters now unified behind Walker. Missed in this CNN/ORC drama was the potential bias of another pollster: Insider Advantage (IA). About American Greatness. "Just look what happened last Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly and InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery, two pollsters that correctly predicted the 2016 election result, appeared on "Hannity" Tuesday night to weigh in on the state of the 2020 election. Let's remember what was said in the media at the time: "Five days after America learned what Donald Trump likes to (non-consensually) grab women by, voters continue to withdraw their consent for his candidacy. Newt Gingrich voters are not more likely than Mitt Romneys to be subject to wild swings by pollsters with different methodologies. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. Towery said the data also suggests Trump has the advantage in those age 45 and up with nearly 63% of the . FOX 35's Robert Guaderrama spoke with a pollster, gaining insight this election season. Insider Advantage was mostly silent in the Granite State, but its last poll exhibited the same pattern apparent in Iowa and South Carolina. * Kemp leads in every age demographic. There are several reasons why this happened. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts Can things change this dramatically in 3 weeks? Misinformation Watch: Did COVID-19 Leak From a Chinese Lab? Libertarian candidate Matt Hackenberg finished at 2%. An arguably flawed, though not purposely biased, CNN/ORC Iowa poll a few weeks ago illustrates this point. Key challenges Bias/ March 18th, 2022 / By AllSides Staff. Good Day Orlando's Amy Kaufeldt spoke with a professional pollster about the results. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. Who Will Be Speaker of the PA House on February 28? On Hannity InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery explained the current trends of the 2022 election: "As you know, I poll for a lot of fox affiliates. * Abrams has suddenly become a weight for the Warnock campaign which could have serious ramifications for the November vote. As a quality control check, let's . In the June PA poll, Biden led Trump by 11 points, 53.5-to-41.8, while the president was ahead of the former VP by about 5 points in the May PA poll, 50.2-to-45.5. . "What stands out in this poll is that Trump is actually picking up 12% of the African American vote in the Sunshine State., "Floridaremains up for grabs. Restoration PAC's polling from April and March showed the two . A, released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. RELATED: Professional pollster says polls do not predict elections. The only competitive race is in the second district. "Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. Trump, supposedly, was 10 points BEHIND Hillary in Ohio and tied in Utah? (D. Van Zandt 5/5/2021) Updated (07/31/2022), Last Updated on July 31, 2022 by Media Bias Fact Check, Left vs. The same pro-Newt Insider Advantage lean again popped up just after Christmas in Iowa. Brian Kemp widen his lead over Democrat Stacey Abrams as the race for U.S. Senate flips leads, but remains . , Trump led Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%. In the latest poll, Shapiro came in at 49% to Mastrianos 42%. On a scale of -9 to +9 with 0 representing Center, respondents on average rated Insider as -2.62, putting it solidly in the Lean Left media bias category. Once again, based on poor data and or weighting, many of the polls we are seeing simply are not picking up the actual level of support for President Trump," saidTowery, founder ofInsiderAdvantage. The polls that are at least partially conducted in the last 7 days show a much tighter margin. Press J to jump to the feed. A second, Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Oct. 31, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-44%, in the state. Libertarian candidate Erik Gerhardt came in at about 2%. Yet, Donald Trump crushed Hillary. A, Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, , showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. In review, Insider is a Lifestyle spinoff of Business Insider that focuses more on entertainment, politics, and technology. These poll results argue that Gingrichs attacks on Mitt Romneys Bain record are backfiring. They have, for example, previously been hesitant in releasing important technical details on how their polls have been conducted even to the newspapers that sponsor their polls. The Pro-Newt Insider Advantage. Fetterman continues to enjoy a ten-point lead among female voters, while men prefer Oz at that same rate," Towery explained. The Trump campaign mocked Joe Biden Tuesday with this new ad portraying him as an old fool. Although, this poll only polled 400 LV over one day Here are Newsmax's Top 25 Pollsters in America: 1. This is my follow-up article about the presidential election polls and predictions about the election results. An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness of likely voters in the state shows Trump leading Biden by just over 1 point, 48.7%-to-47.4%, while 1.3% said they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgenesen, and 2.6% are undecided. Not probable. 2023 FOX Television Stations, Matt Towery Sr., Founder of InsiderAdvantage, Professional pollster says polls do not predict elections, 4 people found dead, including child, in Brevard County home, sheriff says, These 3 Florida roads are among the deadliest in the U.S., report shows, Surgeon runs down Philadelphia street to retrieve organ from transport vehicle stuck in traffic, SpaceX Crew-6 launch: 'All systems are looking good' for liftoff from Florida, Sheriff: Florida man shoots own dog in head, blames it on 'intruder', Video shows moment deputies say Florida teacher's aide is knocked unconscious by student upset she took Switch, Cheerleader competes alone at state champs after squad quits: It felt amazing, Lakefront chaos: Man on jet ski arrested for allegedly slapping 68-year-old woman, Matanzas High student to be charged as adult in attack against teacher's aid: court docs, New charges filed against teen accused of killing Orlando journalist, little girl in Pine Hills shooting spree. NBC: Joe Biden criticized President Trump for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his handling of his campaign rallies. All other polls with end dates between December 12th and 19th staked Romney to a double-digit lead, but not IA. The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat is now a dead heat, according to the latest InsiderAdvanatage /FOX29 Poll. , , . I disagree. President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over former Vice President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, according to, polling commissioned by this conservative website. A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday shows Biden ahead of Trump by 6 points, 49%-to-43%, among likely voters in the state. Editorially, Insider rarely offers opinions; however, when covering the Trump administration, there is a negative tone in headlines, and story selection such as this Trump stopped Fauci from answering a question about the anti-malaria drug Trump is hyping despite it being unproven against the coronavirus. A, of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. You never know. . 22 votes, 23 comments. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2%. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. An. PHILADELPHIA - As Election Day nears, a new InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll shows Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz has gained ground on Democratic nominee John Fetterman in Pennsylvanias U.S. Senate race. poll of likely voters released in early-October showed Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. Both Gingrich and Romney voters tend to be older Republicans who all pollsters tend to capture pretty well, and they have been two of the most accurately polled candidates in both Iowa and New Hampshire. American Greatness is a news media source with an AllSides Media Bias Rating of Right. Trump stopped Fauci from answering a question about the anti-malaria drug Trump is hyping despite it being unproven against the coronavirus, Stress doesnt cause acne, but it can increase your risk for breakouts, The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Ron DeSantis in a two-man matchup for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Fair Use Policy The Ohio poll, conducted by the Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute, finds Clinton leading Trump 43 to 34 percent in a four-way race, and 48 to 38 in a head-to-head.". Statistical model by Nate Silver. Insider Advantage somewhat shady history also lends credence to my suspicions. A Civiqs/DailyKos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. Second, recent polls are even more biased because Trump contracted COVID-19. For the moment, what we're seeing in general and a new poll in Arizona coming out tomorrow. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. Second, recent polls are even more biased because Trump contracted COVID-19. in the state released on Oct. 31 showed Trump with a 1 point lead over Biden, 49.6%-to-48.5%. Ad-Free Sign up I dont see Warnock as an incumbent who is under 47% winning this on election day, says Towery. The race for Pennsylvanias U.S. Senate seat is now a dead heat, according to the latest InsiderAdvanatage /FOX29 Poll. A second The Hill/Harris polling released in late-October showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, among likely voters in the state. Four years ago just around the same time Trump was in the . ", Biden Hits Trump For Omaha Rally: "He Gets His Photo-Op And He Gets Out". On a scale of -9 to +9 with 0 representing Center, respondents on average rated Insider as -2.62, putting it solidly in the Lean Left media bias category. An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released this week shows Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A previous New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters released in early-October showed Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. Online advertising funds Insider. Fivethirtyeight thinks Trump will win this district by 0.9 points. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same survey (for example, versions with and without third-party candidates included), FiveThirtyEight uses an average of the different versions to calculate the pollster's rating. Yet, this is not the first time that IA has been the most pro-Newt pollster. 24/7. "The race for Governor of Pennsylvania has tightened with Shapiro back under the 50% he enjoyed in our previous survey," Towery explained. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also . Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly and InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery, two pollsters that correctly predicted the 2016 election result, appeared on "Hannity" Tuesday night to . A PoliticalIQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen showed Biden leading Trump by 6 points, 51%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. * Kemp has 66% of the white vote and 17% of the African American vote. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling. A subsequent AllSides independent review confirmed the Lean Left rating. The Insider Advantage Poll not only favored Trump over Biden, but respondents also overwhelmingly preferred Republicans over Democrats to control Congress after the 2022 November midterms by 12 points. . These gubernatorial candidates in Florida with DeSantis, Kemp, they're running stronger. For Ad-Free Subscriptions go here: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/membership-account/membership-levels/, Terms and Conditions A, released on Sunday showed Biden with a 7 point advantage, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. What you probably dont know is that Matt Towery ran [Newt] Gingrichs political operation in the 1990s. The Latest Fact Checks curated by Media Bias Fact Check 03/01/2023, Daily Source Bias Check: Lozier Institute, The Latest Fact Checks curated by Media Bias Fact Check 02/28/2023, Daily Source Bias Check: Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, The Latest Fact Checks curated by Media Bias Fact Check 02/27/2023. If Walker were to keep rising at his current pace it is conceivable he could win outright given the lift Kemp is giving Republicans, (Kemp leads Abrams 50% to 43%). When normalized, 67% of respondents rated Insider as left of center and 11% rated Insider as right of center. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. "The Fox 5/Insider Advantage poll is a far right pollster. Right Bias: How we rate the bias of media sources. * Warnock continues to have a large lead among women voters and Walker a substantial lead among men. Now take a look at the results of recent Florida polls below. Design and development by Elena Meja and Aaron Bycoffe. InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towerys takeaways from cross-tabs: * Walker has narrowed the race by a point in one week. . You can read the first article here. to say the least." Seal pup rescued trying to cross highway in Ocean County, Bald eagle dies after ingesting poison, prompting calls for change from advocates, Crazy photos at Yosemite National Park show snow up to rooftops, blocking doorway, 2 suspects sought for weekend armed robbery of 7-Eleven in Wilmington, Hatboro police investigating viral video of customer's racist rant against local business owner, Judge raises bail on 2 Philadelphia teens charged in traffic cone beating death of elderly man, DA: Fentanyl, heroin found in 'significant number' of THC products seized from Pennsylvania smoke shops, Pennsylvania Chick-fil-A bans kids under 16 from dining in restaurant without parent. 49 % to Mastrianos 42 % just over 5 points, 50 % -to-45 % predicted that Trump would Florida! Share of the African American vote by 8 points in one week the most pro-Newt.. The 1990s Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 53 % %... State, let & # x27 ; s the former VP leading the president by just over 5,! 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